President Joe Biden’s decision whether to run for a second term may have been decided by totally unplanned circumstances. The mishandling of sensitive documents has escalated into a major contretemps between his rather “classic”—albeit inexcusable—mistakes and the outrageous flaunting of national security regulations employed by former President Donald Trump.
President Biden appears to have been informed of his mishandling of classified materials in November with a few additional files in December and then January. For President Biden it could well be this flap which probably dominated much of the family discussions about whether he should seek a second term.
Already aware that there was likely to be significant fallout from a forthcoming House Republican investigation of his son, Hunter Biden, the President had his and his staff’s mishandling of classified documents also on his plate. These two issues, combined with the obvious matter of age/health considerations, it would not be surprising if the Biden family had now urged the President to forsake a run for a second term.
Under more conventional circumstances, only the matter of Biden’s health would have been a serious consideration in considering the 2024 race. Given the confrontational and destructive environment within which American politics is operating, the hostile environment which Joe Biden might be facing could have driven him to walk away from another campaign. While generally Biden was not one to walk away from a fight, a family consensus—probably driven by Jill Biden—might have convinced him to hang it up after one term.
The Republican controlled House is likely to initiate multiple hearings impugning the character of the President and the Democrats. The ugliness of the forthcoming investigations and hearings are likely to be as ugly as were the 1954 Army-McCarthy Hearings and the House Un-American Activities Committee (HUAC) beginning in 1947.
Unlike the House Special Committee on the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol, the newly created sub-Committee of the House Judiciary Committee will have a full complement of Democrats in place. While the Republican leaders had refused to participate in the January 6th Committee, this new Committee, to be chaired by Representative Jim Jordan, will face a full array of Democrats, but it is unlikely to persuade the Chair to conduct his investigations any more fairly.
The presentation the Republicans displayed in their personal fighting to select a House Speaker was embarrassing. It is likely that the extreme elements of the party now will redouble their efforts, this time demonstrating their commitment to the process of undermining the Biden Administration. It is the new chair of the House Judiciary Committee, who also will be heading Judiciary’s new Select sub-Committee On the Weaponization of the Federal Government. As established by the new House rules, this Select Committee is tasked with investigating alleged government efforts that had been employed to silence and punish conservatives. Jordan will not be alone, as the new House rules have extended large latitude to other committees to investigate the activities of the Biden White House.
The mishandling of national security documents is unacceptable under any circumstances, but the denying, obfuscating, obstructing, and lying by Trump and his lawyers bears no semblance to the apparent straightforward manner in which the Biden team immediately returned any and all documents identified by the National Archives and the Justice Department. In the eyes of the general public and even more so among Trump supporters the discovery of classified documents in President Biden’s office(s) or home or garage, even if they were old and relatively few, only confirms their assertion that the Justice Department had targeted Trump.
For President Biden the document issue will only be the tip of the iceberg of the nonsensical confrontations and ad hominin attacks that he will be required to endure over the next two years and during the next presidential campaign. Biden can assume that since there are 22 months until the election, this matter will be long forgotten by the public. All GOP aspirants--not only Trump—however, undoubtedly will repeatedly attack Biden. The fact that Biden has a very thick and battle-tested political skin does work in his favor but the hurtful attacks to which he will be subjected may be too much for him to endure at this stage in his political life.
At the same time, Biden recognizes that there are no major, serious Democratic candidates—with the clear potential to win--who could manage the public stage in a race for the White House. He also understands that he probably represents the best candidate able to help the large number of contested Democratic Senate seats in 2024 as well as the possibility for the D’s to regain the majority in the House.
For Biden the decision is decidedly more complicated than it was a few weeks ago. The challenge for all public figures at this point in their career remains: make the fight or walk off into the sunset. In the current environment, the disclosure of classified documents only complicates the issue for Biden and the Democrats.
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