If anyone assumed that President Joe Biden was enjoying an extended political honeymoon since January, events over the past two weeks have clearly disabused them of that notion. After fighting brilliantly as if he were in the middle of a rugby scrum, the President had appeared to be succeeding with a $1 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill. He also was moving ahead with expanding the vaccination program throughout the country to prepare the nation for the new school year and a revitalized economy. As he left for a two-week vacation—as happens so often for national leaders—the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle brought him back to the White House. Beyond the policy consequences inherent in all three of these now tenuous policies, it is evident that the President is facing very serious pushback on Capitol Hill, even from some Democrats.
The coronavirus uptick is very real, especially in the South and Southeast; among the unvaccinated and the defiant. The disparity among states regarding mask mandates, social distancing, and public events is extremely challenging. Labor Day was supposed to signal the return to a more traditional fall, but some states and cities are wondering if the virulence of the Delta strain will drive the country back to a state of lockdown. For the national policy makers their guidance is changing regularly.
With respect to Afghanistan, the President needs to extricate the Americans and their Afghani allies efficiently. It remains inexplicable that the once the collapse was imminent, the visa processing, for example, could not have been relocated to a third country out of harm’s way. The military materiel is lost, and for the Biden Administration the faster they close the door on America’s presence in Afghanistan the better. Only then can damage control begin.
On the domestic front it is not clear how much clout the President may have lost for his legislative agenda. The House will decide if they will complete passage of the Senate passed infrastructure package first and deal with the larger $3.5 trillion package separately. If the progressives in the House undermine this approach—just when the President desperately needs to demonstrate that he is in control—it could well doom the entire “human” infrastructure bill.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi knows that she does not the votes to pass the reconciliation bill as now written. She will be stretched to use all of her legislative finesse to convince Democrats in the House not to demand that both bills be handled together. She needs it, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer needs it, and most importantly the President needs it.
The budget resolution must be passed. Pelosi knows, however, that if she wants two more years as Speaker, the country must be impressed with what the Democrats have achieved. Republicans will keep Afghanistan in the public’s eye but delivering roads, bridges, and tunnels can be very enticing to voters.
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Who Needs This Know?
The President does not need a state visit from Israel’s new Prime Minister Naphtali Bennett this week as he is still enmeshed in extricating the U.S. from Afghanistan. While no one expects this to be a boisterous confrontation as sometimes occurred when Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visited President Obama, this is a set of meetings which Bennett could have offered to defer for domestic--perhaps COVID related--reasons in Israel.
Asking the entire national security team—NSC Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Chairman of the JCS General Mark Miley, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin— when they are totally focused on Afghanistan, to engage with Bennett on a possibly disruptive discussion on Iran is unnecessarily distracting. Beyond the personal chemistry and social amiabilities, this meeting is very easy for President Biden as he has a very long history of support for Israel.
A few photos-ops, however, will not distract the White House press corps from pushing both leaders at every chance to comment about the latest events in Afghanistan. Israeli and American journalists undoubtedly will question Bennett whether Israel feels less secure about the U.S. as an ally after America conducted such a hasty, disorganized departure from Afghanistan. It is not that the analogy of America’s relationship with Afghanistan and with Israel is comparable, but that Bennett will be the first ally to visit Biden since the withdrawal. The press in both countries could generate additional negative spin that Biden does not need at this time.
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