What Is Senator Joe Manchin’s Game?

Senator Joe Manchin may stick to his decision to doom President Biden’s Build Back Better bill, or he may re-enter discussions and renegotiate with the White House. If he does the former, he not only is sounding the death knell for President Biden’s tenure, but he could be paving the way for a 2022 as well as a 2024 debacle for the Democratic Party. The absurdity of Manchin’s conduct, however, is that he is totally ignoring the one consideration which should be driving all of his concerns: Is it good for the people of West Virginia? If Manchin truly torpedoes the bill, it will have a tragic effect on the people in his own state of West Virginia.

Few states in the country need government assistance more than West Virginia. Manchin’s home state needs to “build back better” with more job training as well as re-training; universal pre-K; improved environmental regulations; enhanced Obamacare and healthcare guarantees; and extended childcare tax credits. These benefits are urgently needed to help improve the lives for so many of the economically, socially, and unwell in Manchin’s home state. He should be clamoring for more assistance rather than being the chief cutter of domestic programs.

It is likely that there were negotiating mistakes all around. Manchin was arrogant and the White House and some of the Hill staff negotiators were frustrated. They wanted to pass the bill and go home or suspend the discussions to return in January. For Senator Manchin to make a power play and embarrass the President in the eleventh hour of a negotiation that has been on-going for months was unnecessary gamesmanship. The West Virginia Senator had already become the pivotal negotiator on the bill. Manchin had the power, and it was President Biden, nice guy Joe, who was left to duke it out alone with him. If you have the power and are the key player already, why is Manchin’s doing this and what is he trying to prove?

For Joe Manchin the crass political reality is in the numbers. One is the money from West Virginia coal industry and the other is electoral politics. Having been beholden to coal his entire political life, Manchin’s positions have been transparent in how far he will go on climate change measures. The real issue is his remaining political career which is driving him.

Manchin is the only statewide elected Democrat. In 2024, Manchin will be 76 when he faces re-election. After winning election by 54% in 2010 to complete the term of the late Senator Robert Byrd, he won his first full term in 2012 by 61% of the vote. In 2018, Senator Manchin won re-election with only 49% of the vote. Before and after that election, Donald Trump scored large victories in West Virginia carrying the state by 68% in both 2016 and 2020. (West Virginia has not supported a Democrat for President since it voted for Bill Clinton in 1996.)

Republicans have repeatedly solicited Manchin to cross over and join them but, so far, he has relished the power he enjoys being the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. To get re-elected Senator Manchin understands that the best thing he can do is to show West Virginians the dominance of his power.

The Democrats desperately need him regardless of what the progressive wing would argue. If this insurgent wing in the party does not learn fast that it is all about winning, they may win their political battle with Manchin and feel good, but they will lose the ability to be in power for many years. (Just ask some of the House Dems who endured years of being out of power about what life is like in the minority.) Similarly, they ought to recognize the implications for themselves as well in the serious drop in the polls in support for President Biden.

President Biden will come back to fight another day and find a compromise on his BBB bill. What he needs after all parties have exhausted themselves with their rhetoric, is to nail down the bill once Congress returns after the New Year. The Democrats all will need this legislative achievement to run on,,l in their own 2022 re-election campaign; so will Joe Manchin.