The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a growing human tragedy in Ukraine. The Ukrainian people appear to be determined to stand their ground against the Russian attack, but other than weapons and humanitarian support, there will be no NATO troops on the ground to assist them. This war is has created already an eruption in central Europe, with hundreds of thousands of casualties, a country destroyed, and world-wide economic upheaval. Russia is now led by megalomanic who is hell-bent on bringing Russia back to the days of the great empire of Mother Russia. President Vladimir Putin appears ready to abandon all reason and to have his nation endure any cost so he can achieve his vision. Human lives are totally expendable, and all weapons are acceptable regardless of their lethalness.
Absent a coup—which seems exceedingly unlikely at this time—Putin will remain in power. There is little evidence that Putin is employing counsel from anyone. Unlike Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, and even Hitler, there is no identifiable coterie of aides who advise him or whom his adversaries can identify to be engaged in decision-making. In Russia today there are no signs of collective, engaged leadership. Putin appears prepared, as he has done in the past, to carpet bomb Ukraine into submission, with a scorched earth campaign that will make Sherman’s march to Atlanta look like a walk in the park.
If Putin has an Achilles heel it is the Russian oligarchs and sycophants whom Putin enriched and permitted to make fortunes while Putin played with Russia and the world as if he was engaged in a child’s game. These billionaires will accept and believe Putin’s messages until they too begin to face a serious crimp in their preposterously extravagant lifestyle. Like Putin they do not care about the people of Russia—or certainly of Ukraine—but they do have a very greedy self-interest.
Ukraine’s heroic President Volodymyr Zelensky is prepared to lead his courageous people until he too becomes a casualty to the Russian assault. While millions of Ukrainians will leave or try to escape from the Russians, it appears likely the Ukrainian forces will fight on until eventually returning their country to their own leaders. Germany may have for the first-time increased weapons production and is now extending aid to the Ukrainians, while other NATO states are supplying Ukraine as well. At present the West appears to be determined to stand its ground against the Russian invasion, but other than weapons and humanitarian support, there will be no NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine.
The fear is how far will Putin take this horrible incursion and how desperate could he become. Will he resort to tactical nuclear weapons against a NATO country assuming he does not choose that option already in Ukraine? For the West, this new Cold War could become much more intense and dangerous than any confrontation with the Soviet Union except for the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. In that case, the world confronted nuclear ballistic missiles, now nuclear mischief can be accomplished with tactical weapons. No one should assume that Putin will feel any restraint in using them. Finally, accidents that occur while maneuvering with nuclear weapons can trigger a much more serious response than when one transpires with conventional weapons.
For the United States and all its Western allies the moment of truth is rapidly approaching. While Putin can suggest that the imposition of economic sanctions is an act of war, even he needs to make a stronger bluff than that. If the U.S. and its allies are serious in trying to force Russia to step down, it must consider a complete shut-down of all energy being supplied by Russia. The American people may be concerned now about growing inflation, but a shut down on Russian imports will undermine, at least for a while, any hope to emerge from the post-pandemic inflationary rise. Gasoline at the pump may have increased by 10% last week, but, if full energy sanctions are imposed on Russia, Americans will need to adjust to paying five dollars or more a gallon to fill up their vehicles.
At the political level, President Biden is being directly challenged, but these are the crises which Presidents must address. If he can gain the acquiescence of the American people and not an isolationist pullback, he even might be able to turn this crisis into a political victory. Regardless of the political consequences, however, the President needs to make unpopular decisions. He must ignore all the political noise and accept the electoral consequences. The Democrats may not like that but hopefully history eventually will reward them.
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