Events on Wednesday in Wisconsin, and on Thursday in Georgia, brought into sharper focus that the Republican Party of Lincoln, T.R., Ike, and Reagan is no longer. The presidential aspirants on stage in the Milwaukee debate and the former president’s appearance in court in Atlanta no longer represent the character of the Grand Old Party. The demise of the Republican Party of old clearly has been coming for the past several decades. The presidential candidates debating on stage and the man in the court room were no more connected to American politics than was King George III.
American politics itself has changed dramatically since the days of Barry Goldwater. When Senator Goldwater drove the Republican Party off the deep end in 1964, the party quickly adjusted and returned to its more traditional roots by selecting Richard Nixon to lead the party in 1968. After Ronald Reagan moved the GOP further to the right than it had been since the days of Herbert Hoover, George H.W. Bush moved it back to the center. (Similarly, after the Democratic debacle selecting George McGovern as its nominee in 1972, the Dems returned quickly back to the center with Jimmy Carter.)
Historically, American political parties largely have been non-ideological although there have been eras of Republicans or Democrats who were more polarizing and less consensual. Today, both parties are more polarized than ever, especially the Republican Party since the political emergence of Donald Trump. House Speaker Newt Gingrich was certainly a polarizing personality during his brief time as leader, but he eventually took the Republican Congressional Party down with him in the 1998 congressional election. Donald Trump has thrived on this polarizing effect which he has elevated to an art form in American politics. In that context the events last week sadly appear to be normative.
The first Republican Party 2024 presidential debate on Wednesday delivered at least two major messages which ought to be of serious concern to all Republicans. The first was defining the future of the Republican Party. The second--directly related to the first—was whether Donald Trump has completely hi-jacked the GOP. Is it time for Republicans to accept the fact that with the exception of Nikki Haley, and perhaps Mike Pence, there are no aspirants or even Republican congressional leaders who believe that politics is based on the art of compromise?
As was predicted, the media circus surrounding the booking of Donald Trump on Thursday evening in Atlanta and the immediate circulation of his “mug” shot, pushed the entire discussion of the primary debate into the background. For the Republican Party any substantive issues which were discussed in the debate were lost in the vilification of the Justice Department in Washington and the dismissal of the serious events transpiring in the Fulton County Court House. It perpetuated the Republican Party’s affectation with symbols and extreme images. At the same time, it underscored the continued failure of the GOP to find a way to return to its traditional mold.
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Short Takes on the Debate
Ron DeSantis
Coming into the evening DeSantis had the most to lose running in second place behind former President Trump in all the polls. While he did not score big the Florida Governor probably kept his forces in line. DeSantis does not project a warm, likeable personality. He rarely smiles and it is beginning to feel like his 2024 campaign may well have peaked before it ever got started.
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Vivek Ramaswamy
The 38-year-old businessman. Vivek Ramaswamy demonstrated that he could well be the political heir to Donald Trump. He was brash, demonstrative, disrespectful, and loud. Like the former president, Ramaswamy sought to dominate all discussions that he could. He directly challenged Haley, while ridiculing Christie and others. His positions were blunt and simplistic as he kept smiling all the time. His style alone suggested that if any of the candidates could make a bid for the Trump base it is Ramaswamy. For Trump supporters it is his style and devotion to the former president which might be compelling. Ramaswamy is likely to receive a significant bump in the post-debate.
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Nikki Haley
Three people on the stage represented old politics, Pence, Scott, and Haley. Only Nikki Haley was ready to make a minor plea for a return to the old form. She clearly comprehended the need to compromise, even on abortion. Haley did not shrink from the suggestion that she supported the long-standing post World War II Republican plank favoring a strong foreign policy. Her struggling financial position might have received a bump from the debate, but it may not move her very far ahead in the polls.
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The Elephant “Not” in the Room
From his personal vantage point, Donald Trump made the right move not to participate in the debate. As moderator Bret Baier said, he was in the room anyway, although the moderators did not get to Trump until the second hour. Trump did not need the debate or exposure or attacks, even allowing for the fact that Trump is probably the best counterpuncher of the group.
Whether the former president enters the debates before the Iowa caucuses remains to be seen. If he does join, there will always be the question of “why now” and/or whether a dip in the polls in response to some of his court cases might be the motivation for his joining the festivities. Trump’s strategy is to keep his base in line and happy. If some of his followers were to leave his camp, the Republican primaries actually could become a contest.
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