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KAHNTENTIONS

KAHNTENTIONS is a blog post written by Gilbert N. Kahn, Professor of Political Science at Kean University in Union, New Jersey. Beginning in 2011 KAHNTENTIONS was hosted by the New Jersey Jewish News which recently ceased written publication. KAHNTENTIONS presents an open and intellectually honest analysis of issues facing the United States, Israel, as well as Jews world-wide.

BY GILBERT N. KAHN

"These are the times that try men's souls."

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Whither Trump and the GOP?



The struggle for the soul of the Republican Party appears to have begun. Events over the past few weeks have clearly indicated that there actually are numerous voices which may be emerging or strengthening within the Republican Party that are not merely echoes of Donald Trump. They are coming from numerous directions and may well be the first indication that former President Trump may no longer be king of the roost. While it has been suggested that the rank and file of Trump supporters remain as loyal as ever, GOP leaders at numerous levels are beginning to emerge who have very different ideas and strategies as to how to regain political power in Washington. Meanwhile, the Trump money collection machine is as aggressive as ever. Nevertheless, there are other politicians who have begun to suggest that one ought not to assume that the road to control the Congress in the 2022 off-year election as well as the race for the White House in 2024 does not necessarily go through Mar-a-Lago.


In Congress, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had broken with Trump when the President undermined Republican efforts to retain hold of the two Georgia Senate seats in the Georgia run-off with his “stolen election” campaign. McConnell also blamed the President for trying to prevent congressional validation of the presidential election.


Last week the two Republican Congressional leaders responded to the Senate’s move to proceed with consideration of the infrastructure bill in the Senate, the state of the pandemic, and guidance to renew masking. In the Senate, McConnell agreed to join the effort to move the infrastructure bill forward for Senate consideration, while stating that this procedural gesture was not necessarily a vote for the bill—at this time. He also strongly advocated that all citizens be immunized, and he supported masking. On the other side of the Capitol, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy carried former President Trump’s message that moving ahead on this bill was a political farce, ridiculed returning to masks, and did not actively endorse getting vaccinations.


Similarly last week, the two Republican Leaders delivered very different signals concerning the House hearings on the January 6 insurrection. While Senator McConnell begged out of the discussion asserting it was a House Committee, McCarthy attacked the House special committee as a “sham” political committee. What is most important for the future of the Republican Party leadership is that the former number three leader of the House, Representative Liz Cheney, displayed a deep sense of gravitas as she defended the importance and the integrity of the work of the Committee. Unlike the other GOP Leaders, Cheney is trying to develop an alternative, more traditional, conservative profile for herself and a more authentic voice to represent the opposition in the American democracy.


Last week, a Republican candidate actively supported by Trump, Susan Wright, lost her bid in a run-off special election in Texas to succeed her late husband who died of COVID after having been elected in November. The winner, Jake Ellzey, had not disassociated himself from Trump, but it was Wright who received the former President’s endorsement.


While the Texas special election was only one race, but if Trump’s endorsement loses some of its luster, the GOP has a large array of potential candidates—many of whom want to run for President—who are waiting in the wings but fear Trump’s wrath. Those Republicans who have already given indications that they have lofty aspirations include: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis; Texas Senator Ted Cruz; Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton; former Secretary of State and Kansas Senator Mike Pompeo; former Governor of South Carolina and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley; as well as former Vice-President Mike Pence.


The Republican Party’s challenge is a big one. No one should assume that Donald Trump will ever admit that he does not control the Party or its future. Anyone running for president while Trump persists in claiming he will be re-elected is taking a huge political risk. His minions will divide the party. They will accept a Trump argument if he is left on the sidelines while Trump is sure to blame others for any defeat. As he has done his entire life and as he did throughout his term in the White House, Donald Trump never admits making a mistake.


Former Presidents usually withdraw, certainly for a time, from the public eye; but Donald Trump cannot live without the attention and admiration of his followers. Trump is unable to do that even when there are signs that some of his personal and political cache might be beginning to fade.



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