Given the fact that Joe Biden carried Virginia in 2020 by ten percentage points, one would have thought that former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe should have had very little trouble defeating his Republican opponent Glenn Youngkin in the gubernatorial contest next Tuesday. At this point polls are showing the race tightening up that by Election Day the contest might well be a toss-up.
Virginia has moved into the Democratic column over the past ten to fifteen years. The state has gone blue in presidential years since 2008 as well as in both Senate seats. The Governor has been a Democrat since 2013 and both state houses went blue as well in 2019. The demographic picture of the state has also changed dramatically with more middle-class immigrants and their America educated children. It has changed the entire state and not exclusively the Virginia suburbs of Washington. There has been a significant rise in income levels especially in the suburban and exurban areas outside of Washington and Richmond. Democrats maintain strong support among urban minorities as well. Although Virginia still has a strong core of conservative voters across the socio-economic scale, the overall state-wide trend has been decisively blue.
Despite this reality, McAuliffe has struggled in his effort to regain the State House. While there is some justification to place the blame on the Democratic Congress’ failure to move the infrastructure bill and the Build Back Better social infrastructure package, the Democrats’ problem is deeper, structural, and operational.
For McAuliffe to win next week, he will need a very strong turnout of Blacks and Latino voters. While off-year elections have lower turnout across the country and among all sectors of the electorate, the large minority turnout in presidential years is dramatically lower among people of color in the off-years. People do not focus on the off-year elections. Ironically, in numerous ways, off-year elections as well as state and local races are at least important for minority concerns as are the splashy, overwhelming presidential contests.
McAuliffe also is running in a race where the the key suburban voters in Virginia were critical for Biden’s 2020 election victory. Suburban, largely White “soccer Moms” were totally turned off by President Trump. Biden’s success was achieved in these areas as an extension of their move away from the Republican Party which had begun to be evident already in prior elections. This segment of voters, who carried a large part of the physical and emotional burden of the COVID pandemic have really not been as immersed in the election this year as they struggle to return normalcy.
Many are attributing Biden and the Democrat’s failure to complete action on the infrastructure bills as frustrating the suburbanites. While that may be a concern to these voters, it is was more a political tool of the Democratic leadership to try to galvanize Democratic Members of Congress to pass the legislation. What is more likely is that this crucial segment of voters may well be suffering from political burnout.
In addition, Youngkin has not exaggerated his connection with or his support from Trump, which might well have galvanized voters to turnout against him. While McAuliffe is drawing the connection, the fact that Trump has not appeared—so far—in Virginia, ironically helps Youngkin from being required to carry the Trump mantle publicly.
What might save McAuliffe is that early voting appears to be heavy and traditionally many more Democrats vote early than Republicans. This will only help the Dems if the Republican voters next Tuesday do not exceed their normal turnout.
At the end of the day the race clearly will be decided by voter turnout on which the Democrats must remain relentless. If the Democrats lose this contest, it will clearly embolden Republicans for 2022. They may well have a template that can move many campaigns next year in swing states and districts. Republicans big question and liability will be if they can control former President Trump’s ravenous appetite to make every election about him.
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