Four months after America celebrates its birthday this Thursday, the people of the nation will be voting for President. After the nightmare of last Thursday’s night debate, the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden have very little time to make one crucial decision. In the wake of Biden’s abysmal performance, do the D’s have a better chance to win in November toughening it out with Biden or rather with someone else. Would a different nominee, selected by a wide-open process and convention--compressed into six weeks--galvanize the nation to support someone other than Biden; or will that whirlwind be the final nail on a possible Democratic defeat of Donald Trump in November.
It is clear following last Thursday night that President Joe Biden has three options, none of which are necessarily winning ones. They are not pretty and all of them will have a determinative effect on the 2024 campaign. They also do not even begin to address any of the substantive lies and misspeaks that former President Donald Trump uttered in the debate.
First, President Biden can announce that on the advice and guidance of his doctor and his family, he has been advised that running for a second term would be harmful to his health. He can state that had he been so informed earlier he would have dropped out sooner to allow the party and the country more time to select an alternative nominee. As all mortals understand, we do not control all of our medical issues.
Second, the President can admit that he does not feel especially proud about his overall performance in the Thursday night debate with former President Trump. He continues to believe, however, that he is the only person who can defeat Donald Trump in November. Trump’s remarks during the debate suggest very clearly that he intends to lie his way to the nomination and election. Biden will assert that only he can hold the former President accountable for his words.
Third, Biden could challenge the people and the party to decide what is in the best interests of the country. A national poll of registered Democrats could be created quickly for party members to decide this question for him. This will be difficult and debatable but might create a groundswell one way or the other. Given the rush to judge Biden’s fate by many of the national media and as well as analysts and pundits around the country, this might be a more forthright way for the Democratic Party to reach a decision.
The prospect of President Biden dropping out of the race sets the stage for a tumultuous two months of campaigning for delegates. This could culminate in either an orderly Democratic convention in August or a polarizing scene rivaling the destructive 1968 Democratic convention also in Chicago.
While there probably will not be riots in the streets of Chicago this time, there may well be battle royals inside the convention. From a left-middle-right platform committee debate to credential fights, rules debates, numerous nominees, demonstrations, and ballots, the convention could be interminable. While it certainly will bring the Democratic Party into the public conscience, it could well frustrate the patience of the American people. In the 1972 Miami Democratic nominating convention so much chaos ensued over the nomination and selection of the vice-presidential nominee, that it resulted in Senator George McGovern delivering his acceptance speech at around 3:00 am.
The Democratic Party leadership has an additional, different problem to address. Regardless of whoever is the party’s presidential nominee, there are 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats to be selected this fall as well. The Democratic Party leaders need to consider how the various scenarios on the presidential level could impact crucial and decisive elections for the House and Senate.
Specifically, in considering the most recent spate of Supreme Court decisions, Democrats have much about which to be concerned if Trump is re-elected and additional SCOTUS vacancies emerge. Failure to maintain control of the Senate would leave open the likelihood that vacancies on the Supreme Court as well as lower courts would be filled with extremely conservative judges. Together with the large number of previously appointed Trump judges as well as his three Supreme Court appointees, the future legal parameters for the country will be determined for several generations.
All of this will need to be decided with a sense of finality before Congress returns to Washington after the July 4th holiday. Once the die has been cast the nation needs to prepare for a raucous Republican National Convention beginning on July 15 where the roasting of President Biden—regardless of the decision--will begin in earnest. The Democrats then only will have until August 19th before their own convention and another eleven weeks until the American people decide the future of country on Election Day
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