In withstanding an extraordinary and intense aerial attack last night from Iran, Israel--with assistance from the United States and the United Kingdom’s forces—demonstrated to all its adversaries its extraordinary effectiveness and military prowess. In particular, the masterful training and execution by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) during the continuous barrage of attacks displayed a remarkable capacity of the IAF to protect the State of Israel. The preparation, shared intelligence, and efforts in which the U.S. and the U.K. joined ought to have put down a clear marker for Iran.
In strictly economic terms, to defend against the over 300 missiles and drones reportedly launched last night by Iran, Israel expended approximately $1.0 billion in weapons and materiel. The defense cost to Israel needs to be seen in light of the estimated cost to Iran for launching these missiles and drones which is presumed to have been only 10% of that total.
From Iran’s perspective—both regionally and domestically—the attack last night put down a marker for all to see that Iran was not a paper tiger. At the same time, Israel and the United States had been prepared for some form of retaliation by Iran against Israel. This was following Israel’s recent killing of key Iranian military Revolutionary Guard leaders in a surgical attack against them in facility apparently adjoining the Iranian consulate in Damascus. From the perspective of the Iranian Government, its people, the Sunni world—especially Saudi Arabia—, and the West, it demonstrated that Iran continues to be a growing regional military power.
In addition, from a Muslim point of view, Iran’s attack on Israel was a demonstration to the Islamic world that it would not allow itself or Muslims to be shamed by the “infidels”. Furthermore, as has frequently been suggested, Iran—unlike many of the Arab countries--is a very pragmatic regime. The Iranian goals may ultimately be global, but their modus operandi is gradual. They now have responded, saved face, and are ready to move on.
The critical question that remains now is what Israel’s response will be and what might be the consequences. It appears that President Joe Biden, in his late-night conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, made it clear that the U.S. opposes any major Israeli response to this attack. The President seems to have indicated that the United States would not support a major Israeli military response—certainly at this time. The U.S. appears ready to accept the Iranian statement that, now that it has “settled the score” it is prepared to move on. Biden clearly is evidencing serious concern that a major Israeli “hit” against Iran might well trigger a full-scale regional confrontation.
Excluding the possibility of a military response, Prime Minister Netanyahu has a huge opportunity to begin to regain international respect for Israel at this moment. It is not clear, however, that Bibi is politically capable of conducting himself in a more statesman fashion and follow the President’s lead. Israel did call for an immediate U.N. Security council meeting. Netanyahu now should support President Biden’s lead to approach the G-7 for a united, elevated Iranian sanction regime, and not engage in a further dangerous game of tit-for-tat.
Israel is clearly in the global doghouse because of the blame it has received—rightly or wrongly—for exacerbating the extensive civilian casualties in Gaza. If the Netanyahu Government can rise above the very strong Israeli internal political demands for a major Israeli response against Iran, Israel might begin to draw back some “credit” from its critical and crucial allies. It will require statesmanship from Netanyahu and a willingness to control the more extremist elements of his governing coalition.
If this effort could persuade the Israeli Government as well as Hamas leaders to move towards a cease-fire in Gaza and the return of the hostages, it may create a possibility for there to be a more tranquil situation in Israel as the Passover holiday begins next week.
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It is infuriating to observe the political posturing and pontificating of many American congressional politicians each blaming the other side for being ineffective in enacting pending legislation giving Israel necessary military assistance. As is true among some Israeli politicians now as well, it is painful to watch duly elected leaders unable and unwilling to disconnect from politics as usual. They prefer to offer self-righteous positions instead of proceeding with legislating, so that crisis management is their only mode of operation.
Finally, for most of American “pols” it is now all about their re-election campaign in November even when it comes to foreign policy. In the case of Netanyahu, the politics are for his own personal political survival.