There is a growing amount of commentary considering the implications of the governing Israeli coalition in the final stages of assemblage by Binyamin Netanyahu. Most of the discussion revolves around the consequences of the right-wing extremists who will be part of the new Government as well as the sizeable ultra-Orthodox participation. These concerns address possible a severe clamp down on the rights of Israeli Arabs as well as Palestinians in the occupied territories.
Observers are genuinely anxious about possible violence erupting from several Arab communities as well as aggressive actions by various Jewish settler movements. Efforts to expand Israeli towns, settlements, and even hill-top retreats—which will likely be encouraged by some of the new Cabinet Ministers—may well precipitate violent responses from the Palestinians. The potential for a major confrontation between the groups, an explosive reaction, followed by a counter-reaction seems inevitable.
In addition, there are numerous geopolitical responses which could develop as a reaction to some of the potential policies of this new Government. Washington as well as many other supporters of Israel will not be pleased if a Netanyahu Government explicitly rejects any possibility of a two-state solution to the Palestinian conflict. On the other hand, in the region, it appears that the major players in the Abraham Accords seem to be unconcerned about the possible implications to the Palestinians of forthcoming aggressive Israel actions.
There is a important additional dimension which could have significant and long-term implications for Israel. The ideological orientation of the projected new Government has support from perhaps 25% of American Jews. While there have not been any attitudinal polls of American Jews since the election, based on previous polling it is fair to assume the accuracy of this number. It consists largely of political extremists as well as religious nationalists and ultra-Orthodox (Charedim) among Diaspora Jews. Many of those in the larger majority are not especially vocal in their opposition to the new orientation of the Israel Government, but there have been op-eds and commentary among Jewish media and leadership to confirm that American Jews are not pleased.
Specifically, this new Government likely will be uncompromising in their opposition to the acceptance of religious practices of non-Orthodox Jews. Many of their proposals will affect secular Israeli Jews as the charedim as well as the extreme religious Zionists will seek to impose their religious will on the country. Netanyahu has a personal need to obtain judicial “reform” and changes in the functioning of the Israeli Supreme Court to prevent him from the possibility of serving jail time. His extremist parties’ members, therefore, will be able to hold him “hostage” to meet their parochial demands. This 64-member coalition could break apart—especially from the extreme right--if Bibi reneges on any commitments that he makes to them in his coalition agreements.
At the same time, most Diaspora Jews will push back if the new Government imposes addition restriction on non-Orthodox Jews with respect to conversion, the Jewish right of return, “who is a Jew?, prayer at the Kotel (the Western Wall), etc. It is expected that non-religious and/or secular Jews will be made to feel increasing unwelcome by many of the proposals being advocated by some of the extremist new Ministers. Religious coercion against the non-Orthodox will alienate wide segments of Diaspora Jews.
Ironically, there is one additional element which ultimately could upset Netanyahu’s strategy, his own Likud Party. Having made so many concessions to his coalition Members and having distributed “perks” to all of his partners, Bibi may well find his own largest party resenting some of his more extreme positions. These concessions might even go farther than his right-wing Likud Party was prepared to make. They too want to return to power, but there may be murmurings among certain elements of Likud, including his continued party leadership.
Binyamin Netanyahu has until December 21 to present his new Government to the Israeli Parliment. It undoubtedly will be a new Netanyahu led Government, but the final compromises to make this happen could have dramatic consequences for Israel not only among the citizens of Israel and their immediate neighbors, but for Israel’s place in the world and among world Jewry.
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