After four years in which many of Israel and its American supporters saw U.S. Middle East policy largely being conducted from Jerusalem, they now seem suddenly to be surprised that the Biden Administration is reverting to a much more traditional form of regional policy. Israel leaders appear piqued, for example, at the new Administration’s announcement that they were reassessing the UAE weapons sale and were re-establishing relations with the Palestinians.
To appear shocked at these and other actions which the Biden team is taking is a foolhardy approach for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Instead of reveling in the return of an old friend of Israel, Joe Biden, to the White House, Bibi appears annoyed at his loss of Pompeo/Kushner approach towards Israel which approached a carte blanche.
U.S.-Israel relations for the next four years definitely will involve President Biden pushing a refresh button to revert back to a more traditional approach of dealing with an old friend. Military and intelligence relations will proceed without skipping a beat. Substantive policy issues involving Turkey, Syria, the Gulf States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa will require active and not passive engagement as had been the case for the past four years. America’s desire to reconnect actively with its European allies will also change the perceived priority that Israel saw in its “unique” relationship with the Trump Administration. Israel will face a need to cease merely riding on the coattails of the arrogance that the U.S. extended towards its European allies. Similarly, the Biden Administration will be resetting its relationship with Russia as well as with China, which also will affect geopolitical events in the Middle East.
The situation with Iran is not a simple matter. Both Israel and the Biden Administration comprehend what has transpired since the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran Agreement. Israel needs to rebuild trust for its position with the Biden Administration and among congressional Democrats as opposed to Netanyahu’s dismissive attitude towards President Obama when he visited Washington in March 2015. The maneuvering conducted by Netanyahu, House Speaker John Boehner, and Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer, left a terribly bad taste in the mouths of many Democrats. Netanyahu’s circumvention of the President and his addressing a joint session of Congress, was a blatant affront and sign of disrespect for bi-partisanship and the norms of the American political system. Bibi needs to reestablish himself and his personal credibility in the eyes of the Democrats.
Netanyahu may well have a very different analysis and appreciation as to how to assess the current Iranian nuclear threat and the merits of re-invoking the terms of the JCPOA. The Israelis need to demonstrate a sincere desire to work with Washington and not to instruct the Biden Administration as to what is in the U.S.’s best interest. Things indeed may have changed and may need to be re-negotiated. The Biden Administration, however, is also acutely aware that any actions by Netanyahu at this juncture are immediately influenced by his own political vulnerabilities as he prepares for the latest round of Israeli elections on March 23.
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Footnote to the Next Israeli Government
The ultra-Orthodox religious community in Israel consistently has defied the Israeli Government’s requirements during COVID-19 for social distancing and mask-wearing. On Sunday, approximately 10,000 followers of two Orthodox rabbis, who had died from the virus, marched through the streets of Jerusalem. The entire country is in a lockdown, yet government authorities cannot or will not prevent the charedim from defying the law. The Israeli Prime Minister appears to be so determined to win Israel’s forthcoming election that he is playing loose with health regulations and is infuriating sizeable segments of the Israeli population.
Convinced that he will be forming the next Israeli Government after the March 23 election, Bibi is playing an especially cynical game. Calculating that he will need the charedi parties to make his majority, he, therefore, is prepared to accede to the demands of 11% of the country’s population. His political calculus appears to be that none of his right-wing opponents will gain more seats in the next Knesset and thus would be unable to lead a new Government. For Netanyahu, he needs to insure the charedi backing as his first line of support to return as Prime Minister.
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