Current global politics appears to be fixated on the war in Gaza and the war in Ukraine. Israel and Hamas, following almost 110 days of fighting, continues to be engaged in an active confrontation; although there are indications that the intense combat may be moving ever so slowly to at least a temporary cease-fire. In Ukraine, the Russian invasion appears to be entering its third year with no end in sight to the fighting.
Both of these conflicts raise a very important challenge for American policy makers which has been largely ignored in the public conversation. What exactly has happened to the august Russian military might that it has become embarrassingly bogged down in Ukraine and has been totally invisible in the Middle East.
While no one is suggesting that President Vladimir Putin is losing his grip on power in Russia or that his regime is facing any visible internal challenges, most Russian officials as well as world leaders recognize that Putin has failed in his expected steamroller of Ukraine that he launched in February 2022. Russian advances have been largely repulsed over time or brought to a stalemate. The Russian military was grossly unprepared, poorly led, and ill-supplied for an extended confrontation. Most of the Russian military equipment has not performed up to expectations and morale among the Russian military is reportedly exceeding low.
Russian authorities have admitted to the loss of 42,000 soldiers in the war in Ukraine over the passed two years. Of that number, reports suggest that 3.053 officers have been killed of whom 340 were of a rank of lieutenant-colonel or higher. U.S. estimates in December suggested that Russian losses in dead and wounded exceeded 315,000; approximately equivalent to 90% of military personnel that Russia had on active duty when the conflict began. Similarly, its loss of military equipment has been so staggering as to postpone the planned Russian military modernization by 18 years.
The consequence of this situation has affected national morale and has witnessed a significant decline in the Russian economy. While Russia is projecting economic growth in 2024 to decline to a growth approaching 2.8%, the International Monetary Fund expects Russian GNP to grow only 1.5%. Russia’s rate of inflation in 2024 is expected to exceed 12%. Only its continuing energy exports have saved the Russian economy from a more serious dislocation.
While Ukraine has suffered major losses itself, it has performed extraordinarily well on the battlefield largely with help of military assistance from the United States and the West. Ukrainian battlefield performance has improved abetted by Western aid and training. Assuming that this assistance will be sustained, the Government in Kyiv is likely to remain stable and be able to place greater demands on any future ceasefire arrangements.
The continuing improved performance of Ukrainian forces in the war has had a major effect on Putin himself and his Government. Watching the activity in the Middle East it is clear that Russia is not ready to interfere in any way to facilitate a resolution. While there maybe powers in the region which would like to see greater Russian involvement, it seems that it is highly unlikely. This situation has enabled the Biden Administration to be the lead negotiator in the Gaza War together with the regional actors.
President Biden and his national security staff have devoted extraordinary time and energy in trying to create the modalities for a reduction of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. It has succeeded so far as well in restraining other terrorist actors—including Hezbollah in Lebanon/Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen--relatively at bay.
Absent a major shift in the maneuvering in Teheran to escalate the crisis, the U.S. together with its Western allies has the opportunity to determine how to resolve the fighting in Gaza. Ironically, while Israel has legitimate considerations in not wanting to end the war until Hamas is vanquished from Gaza, the Government of Binyamin Netanyahu is under increasing pressure to move rapidly to a ceasefire at least to gain the release of the hostages; whatever the terms will be.
The current Gaza crisis represents an especially unusual situation where the U.S. is so deeply invested, and Russia is absent. A global military-political crisis is on-going, and Russia is almost totally invisible from the discussion. Putin has far too much on his plate at home and any of the carrots he could dangle—specifically energy—are irrelevant to the involved parties.
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