Joe Biden had a reputation in the Senate as a nice guy who cared deeply about issues and was a smart legislator. He understood the process of compromise and worked well with all people, not only those who agreed with him. Especially on domestic issues, Biden worked well to achieve the “possible”, not always the outcome he wanted. For Biden, you fought your war, won a battle, and then reloaded for the next political skirmish. In foreign policy he was generally a moderate who trusted friends and sought to make more. Joe Biden, however, was not a great thinker or a person of large ideas—on his own. It is President who especially in international politics appears today to be in trouble and even getting into deeper problems.
The Biden Administration is facing a growing list of global crises and the overwhelming impression is that the President just wishes they would all go away. One has a sense that his staff is also not very effectives both at the White House as well as in the State Department.
Biden is also unwilling or unable to confront those progressive forces within his own party who are urging a restrained foreign policy. Problems like Iran, China, and Ukraine, however, do not just go away. Diplomacy is crucial, but there needs to be a sense that the Biden team is more than just talk. It needs results.
President Barack Obama, under whom Biden served for eight years, was on his ticket—for among other reasons--his national security expertise. Obama still made some bad foreign policy moves, but President Obama appeared to have a global vision. Obama understood that foreign policy ultimately is a challenge for how a president behaves as a crisis manager. International relations are not about expanding the Abraham Accords or re-joining the Paris Agreement on climate change, they are about a global posture for America and its allies.
The President’s leadership is further impacted by problems challenges facing his closest allies. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Government is in deep trouble with its very political viability seriously in doubt. Other than his focus first on Brexit and then COVID, Johnson has not demonstrated much leadership—except to protect his own political skin. Both on domestic problems as well as foreign policy issues Johnson has proven that the charge of many of his critics is correct: Johnson has no real policy sophistication.
President Emmanuel Macron is facing the first round of French national elections in April. At this time, he is focused on securing and solidifying his base. Active engagement on a global stage, if it were to fail, could jeopardize Macron’s re-election bid. Aside from France being very divided on any potential military engagement, this explains in part Macron’s diplomatic reticence.
Germany’s new Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is just getting his Government organized. As a left of center coalition there are political and ideological changes following the Merkel years which puts Scholz in an increasingly difficult position as he endeavors to move Germany forward. He faces economic problems posed by Russia, a major potential energy crisis, plus a basic reluctance to exhibit any interest in moving ahead with military action.
On the other side, however, once the Olympics are over, one can expect that China will try to move ahead with additional aggressive activity challenging the future of Taiwan. Similarly. the mischievous saber rattling of Kim Jong-un will undoubtedly continue with very little constraints to restrain him. Iran has become emboldened in its renewed aggressive activities against the Gulf States. The Houthi rebels, with Iranian sponsorship, have become much more aggressive in Yemen and now in Abu-Dhabi as well.
At the same time, the West has appeared painfully weak in its inability to force Iran to restrict its nuclear weapons’ development. One year of negotiations including seven months with the new Iranian Government, have produced no constructive movement to rescue the JCPOA. Finally, Putin, knowing that all these issues are plaguing the West, toys with Europe and the U.S. as he intensifies the rhetoric of his threatened invasion of Ukraine.
The Biden team wishes this would all go away. The U.S. is being tested around the world and one does not sense that the Biden Administration has a vision, has established anything resembling a strategy, and/or has developed a unified approach with its allies. The Biden national security apparatus appears clueless, but these problems will not disappear.
Comments