When two parties enter discussions where there are known agreements between the parties as well as known differences, neither side expects to totally convince the other side that their positions are wrong; nor alternatively that their own position is correct. This is especially the case when both parties to the discussions are friends. This was understood when President Joe Biden went to Israel, and it remained the case as he left.
As the President departed, he had every reason to feel positive about his visit in Israel. Similarly, from the perspective of Israel’s new Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, the President’s visit to Israel also was deemed to have been a success. It appears that there were no noticeable slip-ups and Israelis felt positive with their relationship with Washington.
On the other hand, as President Biden landed in Jeddah the political chill was palpable. The President arrived with a brave front but with a very weak hand to play. Most commentators do not expect the talks in Saudi Arabia to produce significant results, certainly not immediately. Biden would not have gone to Saudi Arabia without an expectation that he can make progress on the energy front which is vitally important to the U.S. and to the global economy.
Head of States of State do not meet in today’s world unless the results have been very carefully choreographed. With the exception of President Trump’s style of conducting diplomacy –for example his meetings with Kim Jong-un where no one knew what was going to happen and the Helsinki meeting with Putin where Trump went into a private meeting with only a translator in the room—all heads of state meetings are heavily staffed. There are almost never any surprises. Both sides must leave with a gain, although sometimes, as likely will be the case this time, they will not be immediate.
The Saudis hardly will roll over when the President pushes the human rights button or the matter of the role of women in the kingdom. President Biden needed to come to Saudi Arabia to offer an apology for the hardline position he took against Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for his involvement in the killing and dismembering of journalist Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi. Nothing is more important in the Muslim world than a person’s honor. Regardless of the evidence that the U.S. might have implicating the Crown Prince in the Khashoggi murder, if the President wants (or needs) to do business with the Saudis he must “eat some crow.”
While Biden certainly will discuss human rights conditions in Saudi Arabia, President Biden’s agenda is much more immediate. He needs a response to his request that the Saudi and the Gulf States increase petroleum production in light of the Western embargo on Russian oil. Given the Saudis ruffled feathers over the Khashoggi matter but recognizing Biden’s willingness to visit the Kingdom, the U.S. probably expects a response that the Saudis will consider increasing oil production—but only within a few months. There will be a bit of movement on both sides, although it may not be as visible as the U.S. and world markets desire.
On the issue of Iran, moreover, the U.S., the Saudis, and the Gulf States, as well as other Sunni allies at the meeting plus Israel, are prepared to consider alternative strategies. Assuming the JCPOA agreement with Iran is dead, there appears to be a distinct possibility to establish a formal joint monitoring system. Their general concern about a nuclear Iran threat is real. At the same time, they recognize that the U.S. has committed itself to continue pursuing a diplomatic solution although all parties recognize that this is becoming more futile.
The most interesting and yet ambiguous discussions with the Saudis involved Iran and its nuclear weapons’ development program. Will there be agreed upon arrangements as to how to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which the Israelis are pressing for? While Israel undoubtedly will be encouraged at a minimum to continue to pursue a more aggressive policy attacking Iranian equipment, key scientific and military leaders, and cyber warfare, it is not at all clear whether any of the Arab States are prepared to do more themselves than to permit Israel to over-fly their countries. Israel might be seeking additional intelligence from the Saudis. The U.S. might be prepared to provide Israel with logistical support if an actual attack were directed at Iranian nuclear sites, especially if the U.S. was joined in this effort by some of the Arab States. These and other strategies concerning Iran are speculative.
It is this discussion, however, which provides both the Americans and the Saudis with substantive cover for their immediate issue concerning the need for increased energy production. This is what is immediate importance to the President Biden, the U.S., and the world-wide economy.
Comments