Even before the recent Democratic primary in Michigan much had been written about the future relationship between the State of Israel and the United States. In the Democratic primary, the size of the “uncommitted” vote was larger than had been anticipated giving President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party concern about support and turnout for the President in November. This “uncommitted” vote exposed in raw terms a serious growing national dissatisfaction among Muslim-Americans and Arab-Americans as well as within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party with Biden’s policy in the Middle East.
It also pointed to a more serious national issue. The war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is clearly eroding the support of many Americans for Israel--both among Jews and non-Jews. The consequence of this shift needs to be better understood by Israelis as well as Americans.
Americans are frustrated and anguished at the plight of the Palestinian people, regardless of how exaggerated, distorted, or mis-reported their suffering may be by Hamas sources. There is a perception that Israel’s continuing military dependency on America’s large-scale support cannot continue unabated. Israel cannot conduct its national security policy expecting to continue to receive a blank check from American Governments for its sophisticated armament needs.
Without in any way minimizing the horrors of Hamas’ pogrom against Israel on October 7, the Israeli Government has given no serious indications that it appreciates President Biden’s heartfelt support for Israel—militarily, diplomatically, and politically. It appears to be especially underappreciated by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and most of his Government. Perhaps what is most offensive is the failure of Israeli Government to appreciate the political risks and dangers this it has created for President Biden.
America’s global posture, however, is being affected by Washington’s inability to receive positive assurances from Israel that it is genuinely willing to take political risks to change its current status quo with the Palestinians, in order to enable the creation of a possible more functional regional future. Without minimizing Hamas’s inhumane conduct and cold-hearted calculating treatment of innocent by-standers, Israel needs to facilitate the return of the remaining hostages and a humanitarian ceasefire. Whatever the domestic political calculations will be for Bibi and his Government, it is past time for them to accept the reality that no matter how many Hamas fighters and leaders it eliminates, Hamas’ ideology will persist—certainly for the foreseeable future. Continuing the fighting will not solve the problem.
The war between Israel and Hamas together with the war in Ukraine has also highlighted the depth and seriousness of the growing isolationist mood in many parts of America, especially among Republicans, particularly among Trump supporters. This is largely to blame for the failure of Republicans in the House of Representatives to accede to President Biden’s request for a supplemental foreign assistance package. The lack of urgency expressed by House Republicans for Biden’s supplemental bill reflects their lack of interest in aiding Ukraine as well as Israel and Taiwan. It underscores in part the re-emergence of a serious isolationist direction among Republicans led by former President Donald Trump and his MAGA allies in the country as well as in Congress.
This intensified pushback by Republicans to U.S. involvement—even in the form of largely American manufactured and produced aid—envisions very serious problems for future U.S. engagement in global security issues in the months and years ahead. It has raised the rankles of America’s friends and allies around the world--especially in Europe--as they contemplate the possibility of a second Trump Administration.
There is a strange connection to both of these perspectives. To date, it is being suggested that the Netanyahu Government believes that Israel will be better supported in the years ahead by a second Trump Administration rather than a Biden second term. Presumably Bibi must believe that the isolationist direction of the GOP will not include a diminution in support for Israel in the future.
Current Israeli leaders believe that the Evangelical wing of the MAGA party will serve as their advocate with Trump. It is, however, a very risky approach upon which to base for the U.S.-Israel relationship under present circumstances, as well as down the road. Right-wing Israelis and their American supporters clearly believe that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party will prevail in leading the party in a second Biden Administration as well as in the years ahead. They would rather put their chances in the hands of Trump and the Evangelicals.
While Democrats, on the one hand, have always had a more progressive flank, it has never dominated the party, especially in foreign policy. On the other hand, it was clearly Republican isolationist policies which dominated American foreign policy between the World Wars and afterwards until the Eisenhower Presidency. Reliance on a future Trump Administration could be a very misguided strategy for Israel, as American political history does not support this approach.
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