Israelis go to the polls once again on March 23 for the fourth time in two years. In the time since the current 23rd Parliament (Knesset) was elected on March 2, 2020, very little has changed on the political landscape. The Israeli political scene continues to have almost the same cast of characters debating the same array of issues. The only real addition in the past year has been the addition of the coronavirus.
Binyamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister and the right-wing parties of various stripes continue to dominate Israeli politics. Political stability is totally absent among the rival parties and shift of individuals shuffling about among the parties and vying for national leadership has remained largely the same. If there ever was a democratic population that should be suffering from election fatigue it is the Israelis. Ironically, however, Israel continues to affirm a growing, regional political role; sustains a dynamic economic system in the midst of a pandemic; and persists in allowing its historical, fundamental political issues to fester.
There are a few interesting developments which have evolved in Israel over the past four elections which are worth considering. The politics within the Israeli Arab population is changing. Israeli Arabs remain undecided as to whether they can achieve greater political power as separate parties or whether they are better off as a united bloc. Israelis are aware, however, that there is an active discussion among this bloc of roughly 20% of Israelis who now appear more motivated than ever to try to attain a role in potentially governing Israel. This could be good for Israeli Arabs and for Israeli democracy. The best evidence of the growth of Israeli Arab activism is the fact that some of the mainline parties and even Bibi himself has made a point of trying to court Arab voters.
Another obvious force which is continuing to grow politically is the ultra-Orthodox (charedi) community. More than ever, in the midst of Covid, this segment of the Israeli body politic has marched largely to their own drummers. The current Government largely has kowtowed to the Charedim while 85% of the Israeli population has watched as the majority of the ultra-Orthodox have flouted the regulations and restrictions that the Government has imposed during the pandemic. This edition of the Netanyahu Government is clearly afraid to challenge the charedi leadership for fear of driving them into the arms of one of Bibi’s Likud Party’s right-wing rivals.
There is minimal attention being given by the various parties to the major regional or global issues that Israel faces, except for Iran. The only noticeable action has been that the Biden Administration, unlike its predecessor, is re-asserting U.S. concern for the Palestinian issue. Internationally, the newest issue has been the anger raised by the International Criminal Court’s decision to commence a war crimes investigation into Israel’s and Hamas’ conduct in 2014 as well as a more general investigation into Israel’s occupation of the West Bank. Overall, however, Israel has enjoyed a remarkable period of boredom in the region and among its neighbors.
The one clear political development in Israeli politics which has become more and more evident over the past two years is the growing decline of the Israeli left and even much of the political centrists. The old-line Israeli Labor Party initially seemed that it might be unable to reach the political threshold to even gain seats in the next Knesset, let alone to lead the Opposition. As for the balance of the left it is splintered into pieces and even the political moderates are frustrated by their inability to garner significant votes.
The entire left/moderate wing of Israeli politics has no real leaders while the right has an abundance of chiefs and would be leaders. In fact, there are very few academics, intellectuals, retired military brass, or professionals—many of whom are very connected ideologically to the left and center-left in Israel--who are prepared to launch a career in politics. As a result, there remain strong voices of discontent with Bibi and the right, but no “action” where it counts. All of this suggests that the outcome of the next election will be more of the same, with the only unknown being whether Netanyahu heads the next Government and continues to remain out of the courtroom.
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