As Election Day approaches and with early voting proceeding for several weeks, the final Election Day push in hand. Many of the issues are typical campaign variables while some have a new element of concern. Part of this is due to national malaise and some of it a function of the ugliness of the political.
Turnout
Voter turnout will be critical, particularly in the swing states and especially for down-ballot races. Both parties are pressing for early voting, something former President Trump attacked in previous campaigns. The unknown is whether early voters will merely be traditional voters opting to vote early or new and increased numbers of voters.
The Democrats have mounted a huge and very traditional ground game to get out the vote. In addition, Vice-President Harris’ campaign has employed the traditional GOTV technique--massive numbers of callers, doorknockers, leaflets, signage, etc. The Republican party, curiously, has turned over its presidential turnout campaign to Elon Musk and his “America Pac”. Reports suggest despite all the money that Musk has poured into this effort; it is not succeeding.
Harris’ biggest problem among undecided and independents is largely the inability to get these voters to listen, to watch, and to read. For this remaining segment of voters, it appears to be all about visuals and images. Harris must bring these remaining critical voters in the key states to focus on the words and the actions of the candidates; not strictly on images and emotions. The one advantage the Vice-President has, remains the fact that the former President continues to throw out more raw meat for her to exploit.
Money
The amount of money raised, donated and spent in campaigns in 2024 appears to be exceeding $16 billion. This preposterous amount includes not only candidates’ own spending but monies coming from PACs, SuperPACs, party committees, etc. While more millionaires and billionaires appear to have supported Trump, the Harris campaign appears to have out-raised and out-spent the Trump campaign. According to Open Secrets in the 2024 election cycle Kamala Harris’ campaign will have spent almost twice as much as Donald Trump. Excluding outside groups, the Harris campaign is spending a projected $800 million versus $356 million by the former President. The Democrats also are reported to have spent more on Senate and House races than have Republicans.
Language
There are some observers who have suggested that the misuse or ill-use of language in the final days and weeks of the campaign have had a negative effect on voters. While Trump’s speech may provide additional fodder for his base, in some circles it is disconnecting the former President’s ability to persuade the critical group of undecideds. While Trump may dismiss these people as “unlikely” voters, he may be doing so at his peril.
Trump is also using a curious technique which might succeed or rebound against his race. The Republican campaign has made very public its intention to challenge this election in every state and district where they do not “trust” the outcome. This could arouse his supporters to insure that they turn-out and vote or it could drive undecided and waffling voters to accept the Harris message concerning the danger she has suggested that Trump poses to American democracy.
Down-Ballot
Americans will be electing 33 U.S. Senators, 435 Members to the House of Representatives, eleven State Governors, and 43 State Legislatures. In addition, there will be numerous local and state-wide referenda on the ballots including 14 States which have abortion related propositions on their ballots. (Many of these initiatives are seeking to over-ride strict state barriers that have been enacted restricting abortions.)
The impact of these races is two-fold. First, they provide an additional incentive for people to turn-out but they present a challenge to voters. As there has been a dramatic decline in split-ticket voting down ballot elections, candidates need to intensify their efforts to gain public recognition of their names. Second, voters have tended to either only vote for the top of the ticket or vote straight down the ballot. Initiatives and referenda also require voters to pay strict attention to their ballot.
There will be an interesting correlation to study after this election, especially with respect to those supporting abortion rights in those states where there is an abortion issue on the ballot. The key question will be whether voters connect their support or opposition on this initiative with a candidate who takes that position if it requires them to split their votes? In addition, how does that impact the outcome in a given state.
The nature of the demographic turnout will be crucial especially for the Democrats. They need women and, especially, men of color to support Vice-President Harris in even larger numbers than have been reflected in recent polling. They also need suburban White woman to continue to move even more decisively and responsively on the abortion issue. Much of this will also require ticket splitting in some key swing states.
Unless the election defies analysts and produces decisive victories, it will take several days or longer for the final results to all be tabulated.
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