Where is the GOP Moving?

Anticipating a possible large-scale march on Washington, the D.C. police, Capitol police, and national guard were all on alert on Saturday. The actual turnout was smaller than the huge police presence which had been prepared for the worst. While this rally was not precisely labeled as a Trump sponsored event, its organizers did represent themselves as supporters of the January 6 insurrection. In a political world of Trump’s continuing efforts to control the Republican Party however, this march must be considered as part of other recent political occurrences.

Republicans need to assess what is happening to their party. There are clear signals that President Trump and his loyalists have taken over the Republican Party as the more traditional heart and soul of the party has become afraid to confront what is happening. In fact, the actions of former President Donald Trump and his followers may well be maneuvering the GOP into missing its chance to regain control of Congress in the 2022 off-year elections.

The announcement last week that two-term Republican Ohio Congressman Anthony Gonzalez had decided not to seek another term was only the latest in a number of events that should give the Republican Party leadership pause to consider why the Party is unable to include Members who disagree with the former President. In this case, Gonzalez—who is an Ohio celebrity from his football days at Ohio State and later with the Indianapolis Colts —appears to have become extremely concerned about his own and his family’s personal safety. Since he voted to impeach President Trump after the January 6 insurrection, Gonzalez had begun to believe that he was open to being physically attacked. With a Trump supported candidate already set to challenge Gonzalez in a primary, Congressman Gonzalez, a rising young Latino star in the Republican Party, opted not to seek re-election. Unlike Congresswoman Liz Cheney--who was ousted from the House Republican leadership--as well as Ohio Congressman Adam Kinzinger and Michigan Congressman Peter Meijer, all of whom also voted to impeach Trump and are being challenged, Gonzalez has backed out.

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom came from far behind in the polls to successfully defeat the recall effort that had been called for by many of his opponents. At the end of the day, despite significant opposition to Newsom even among Democrats for his personal actions as well as his management of the coronavirus, the possibility that Trump loyalist Larry Elder could become Governor was too much for Californians to contemplate.

With approximately 85% of the vote tabulated, Newsom appears to have obtained 63% of the vote to defeat the recall. (It should be noted that even in 2018, Newsom received just under 62% of the vote.) California voters who had recalled Democratic Governor Gray Davis in 2003, appeared unready now to accept the possibility that a Trump supporter could take over the governorship. For him personally, Newsom will see if the California voters truly support him if and when he seeks re-election next year. For now, with the support from national Democrats including campaigning from President Biden and Vice-President Harris, the recall vote failed.

At the end of July in Texas, in an all-Republican run-off for a vacant House seat, Susan Wright who was endorsed by President Trump was defeated by Jake Ellzey. Running for the seat held by her late husband, Wright lost to Ellzey by 47% to 53% of the vote.

It has become clear that President Trump is determined to invest funds and to campaign in the 2022 off-year elections in order to bolster his followers and to discourage any Republicans who are considering challenging him should he decide to run again for president in 2024. The question for Republicans will be whether rank and file Republicans will be afraid to be disloyal to Trump in 2022. Republicans need to decide whether Trump’s potential support will actually support their electoral efforts in 2022 and 2024 or drive further away traditional conservative and even moderate Republicans.

At the same time, this activity amongst Republicans presents a challenge for the Democrats. Do they believe that Trump’s support and endorsement may well actually undercut those candidates whom he endorses and bring out voters both in primaries as well as in the general election to oppose his choices? If so, can the Democrats solidify their ranks and exploit the anti-Trump vote to their party’s benefit? To take advantage of this, Democrats will need to be very disciplined. It will require the party to sustain a message that does not polarize marginal Democrats, disaffected Republicans, or independent voters. This will be a tall order.